With speculation building around the two new iPhones that could be announced as early as September 2015, what will Apple do with the existing triumvirate of iPhone models? History suggests that the iPhone 4S is on the way out, and one of the new phones will become the new flagship. That leaves the other model, likely the new phablet, free to launch a new product line for Cupertino.
Unlike the Android competition, Apple has always looked to keep this choice to three distinct models. While there are variants with different cellular frequencies around the world, typically three choices of storage memory, and colour variants, Apple has always maintained a limited number of base models of devices. Typically the new flagship model, last year’s flagship at a $100 discount, and the entry-level model which comes with a significantly reduced bill of materials which should allow networks to subsidise the entire cost as part of a two-year contract. In America this typically means a two-year old iPhone is $0 up front, last year’s model is $99 plus contract, and the current top of the line model at $199 plus contract.
In previous years the new model arrived at the top, everyone else rolled over, and one fell out at the bottom. September 2013 was slightly different, as rather than moving down to the middle trench the iPhone 5 was excommunicated and a new model – the iPhone 5C - took its place. I’ve looked at the reasoning behind the iPhone 5C previously here on Forbes (and why it’s not the failure the media think it is).
Yet I find myself wondering if the iPhone 5C will still be around after the next iPhone presentation?
The thinking behind this is simple – with two new models of iPhone allegedly in development (a model with a 4.7 inch screen size, and a ‘phablet’ model with a 5.5 inch screen), where do they slot in to the portfolio? The easiest answer is ‘at the top’ but if that is the case how will Tim Cook carry on with just three levels of iPhone on sale with the new models and just the iPhone 5S? Will he expand to four phones? In fact I think a mixture of both will happen.
The iPhone 4S, with its ageing A5 CPU only remains on the books as an 8GB model. I can see this model being finally removed from the product line. The iPhone 5C, already a benefactor of a lower bill of materials at launch compared to the iPhone 5 has another year of cost rationalisation to factor in, and I believe it could easily occupy the lowest price band and be available for no upfront cost on a two-year contract. Much as the media like to position the 5C as a failure, it has maintained strong sales (arguably stronger than the older iPhone 5 could have managed in the same period), it has brought many new users to Apple, and Apple still love the 5C and the marketing message it can deliver. It’s here to stay for another year, and should occupy the bottom rung.
The iPhone 5S still has a huge amount of street cred, and while it still has expensive components such as the fingerprint sensor, lowering the price of the 5S by $100 should bring many advantages, not least it exposes more users to the M7 co-processor and the benefits of a fitness tracker as the iPhone 5S can double up as a basic tracker thanks to the dedicated motion co-processor. There’s no need to stop production of the iPhone 5S, although it could get a refresh in terms of screen technology or memory size (the iPhone 5SS is probably too much, but expect some smart naming if there is a hint of a refresh happening).
Which leaves space at the top to bring in the 4.7 inch screened iPhone 6 (or whatever name is chosen) with similar specs to the iPhone 5S or extended 5S.
The easiest way to accommodate the new 5.5 inch Apple phone is to place it at the top of the tree, but this disrupts the model of three that has worked well for Apple throughout the years. In terms of marketing and promotion. I also think that Apple will want to avoid two flagship models of iPhone. The 4.7 inch iPhone will be the ‘next flagship model’, the 5S will move to the mid tier, and the 5C will remain in place for another year on the bottom rung.
The iPhone Phablet is going to take a bit more explaining on stage, a bit more justification after Apple’s entrenched view on the 4 inch screen, and as such I think it is going to be pitched not just as a new model oh iPhone, but as a new product range. The iPhone Phablet, much like the original iPad, could be launched as a standalone product without having to fit in Apple’s classic ‘good, better, best’ approach to a mature market.
Which marks the 5.5 inch iPhone out as something special. To stand out as a new category this phablet is not going to be just a bigger iPhone, it’s going to have to be spectacular and stand out… just as the first iPhone did, just as the first iPad did, just as the first of any new Apple line has to.
Of course if the rumors about the delay to the 5.5 inch iPhone 6, putting the availability into 2015, then the tricky issues around the portfolio are answered by circumstance… discontinue the iPhone 4S, roll everyone else down one, and bring the 4.7 inch iPhone 6 in at the top level.
Which leaves the 5.5 inch iPhone 6 able to capture the limelight all on its own in the future… which is at it should be for the brand new product line it represents.
Unlike the Android competition, Apple has always looked to keep this choice to three distinct models. While there are variants with different cellular frequencies around the world, typically three choices of storage memory, and colour variants, Apple has always maintained a limited number of base models of devices. Typically the new flagship model, last year’s flagship at a $100 discount, and the entry-level model which comes with a significantly reduced bill of materials which should allow networks to subsidise the entire cost as part of a two-year contract. In America this typically means a two-year old iPhone is $0 up front, last year’s model is $99 plus contract, and the current top of the line model at $199 plus contract.
In previous years the new model arrived at the top, everyone else rolled over, and one fell out at the bottom. September 2013 was slightly different, as rather than moving down to the middle trench the iPhone 5 was excommunicated and a new model – the iPhone 5C - took its place. I’ve looked at the reasoning behind the iPhone 5C previously here on Forbes (and why it’s not the failure the media think it is).
Yet I find myself wondering if the iPhone 5C will still be around after the next iPhone presentation?
The thinking behind this is simple – with two new models of iPhone allegedly in development (a model with a 4.7 inch screen size, and a ‘phablet’ model with a 5.5 inch screen), where do they slot in to the portfolio? The easiest answer is ‘at the top’ but if that is the case how will Tim Cook carry on with just three levels of iPhone on sale with the new models and just the iPhone 5S? Will he expand to four phones? In fact I think a mixture of both will happen.
The iPhone 4S, with its ageing A5 CPU only remains on the books as an 8GB model. I can see this model being finally removed from the product line. The iPhone 5C, already a benefactor of a lower bill of materials at launch compared to the iPhone 5 has another year of cost rationalisation to factor in, and I believe it could easily occupy the lowest price band and be available for no upfront cost on a two-year contract. Much as the media like to position the 5C as a failure, it has maintained strong sales (arguably stronger than the older iPhone 5 could have managed in the same period), it has brought many new users to Apple, and Apple still love the 5C and the marketing message it can deliver. It’s here to stay for another year, and should occupy the bottom rung.
The iPhone 5S still has a huge amount of street cred, and while it still has expensive components such as the fingerprint sensor, lowering the price of the 5S by $100 should bring many advantages, not least it exposes more users to the M7 co-processor and the benefits of a fitness tracker as the iPhone 5S can double up as a basic tracker thanks to the dedicated motion co-processor. There’s no need to stop production of the iPhone 5S, although it could get a refresh in terms of screen technology or memory size (the iPhone 5SS is probably too much, but expect some smart naming if there is a hint of a refresh happening).
Which leaves space at the top to bring in the 4.7 inch screened iPhone 6 (or whatever name is chosen) with similar specs to the iPhone 5S or extended 5S.
The easiest way to accommodate the new 5.5 inch Apple phone is to place it at the top of the tree, but this disrupts the model of three that has worked well for Apple throughout the years. In terms of marketing and promotion. I also think that Apple will want to avoid two flagship models of iPhone. The 4.7 inch iPhone will be the ‘next flagship model’, the 5S will move to the mid tier, and the 5C will remain in place for another year on the bottom rung.
The iPhone Phablet is going to take a bit more explaining on stage, a bit more justification after Apple’s entrenched view on the 4 inch screen, and as such I think it is going to be pitched not just as a new model oh iPhone, but as a new product range. The iPhone Phablet, much like the original iPad, could be launched as a standalone product without having to fit in Apple’s classic ‘good, better, best’ approach to a mature market.
Which marks the 5.5 inch iPhone out as something special. To stand out as a new category this phablet is not going to be just a bigger iPhone, it’s going to have to be spectacular and stand out… just as the first iPhone did, just as the first iPad did, just as the first of any new Apple line has to.
Of course if the rumors about the delay to the 5.5 inch iPhone 6, putting the availability into 2015, then the tricky issues around the portfolio are answered by circumstance… discontinue the iPhone 4S, roll everyone else down one, and bring the 4.7 inch iPhone 6 in at the top level.
Which leaves the 5.5 inch iPhone 6 able to capture the limelight all on its own in the future… which is at it should be for the brand new product line it represents.
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